D·05
Decisions & Judgment
Whether-Or-Not Is Not a Decision
A choice framed as one option with a yes/no is the worst-performing shape a decision can take.
- Evidence
- solid
- Topic
- Decisions
- Things to do
- 3
- Read
- 1 min
solidHow strong is the evidence?
Good evidence behind it, but fewer people have checked it independently.
- Paul Nutt, 1993 — 71% of organisational decisions were whether-or-not, and those failed about twice as often
- Heath & Heath, Decisive (2013)
Why it works
Binary framing turns the mind into a lawyer for or against a single option instead of a scout looking for better ones.
What to do about it
- Force a third option into existence before deciding. Always. Even a bad one reframes the other two.
- Ask the vanishing-options test: “what would I do if this option were illegal?”
- Look for an AND: can you run both small, cheaply, for a month?
Where people go wrong
Generating fake alternatives you'd never take, to legitimise the one you'd already chosen.
Where this fits in your day
Before deciding
Find a third option, name the base rate, and ask whether the door is one-way.
Read next
- 10 / 10 / 10How will I feel about this in ten minutes, in ten months, and in ten years?solid
- Two-Way Doors Deserve Two MinutesSort decisions by reversibility, not by size, and spend your deliberation accordingly.solid
- Start From the Base RateAsk what usually happens to cases like this one before you consider what is special about this one.proven
- The Planning FallacyYour estimate of how long this will take is an estimate of the best case, and you know it is not the best case.proven