D·08
Decisions & Judgment
It Will Matter Less Than You Think
We badly overestimate how long any outcome — good or bad — will affect our happiness.
- Evidence
- solid
- Topic
- Decisions
- Things to do
- 3
- Read
- 1 min
solidHow strong is the evidence?
Good evidence behind it, but fewer people have checked it independently.
- Gilbert & Wilson, affective forecasting
- Brickman, Coates & Janoff-Bulman, 1978 (lottery winners and paraplegics)
Why it works
The psychological immune system rationalises bad outcomes faster than we predict, and we adapt to good ones faster than we hope.
What to do about it
- Before a high-stakes outcome, write down how you expect to feel and for how long. Read it back later. You will recalibrate fast.
- Weight decisions by their recurring daily texture — commute, colleagues, noise, autonomy — not by their one-off peaks.
- Ask someone who has already made this choice how they feel now. Their report beats your forecast.
Where people go wrong
Assuming adaptation is total. Chronic noise, pain, commuting and bad relationships are the things people do not adapt to.
Read next
- Start From the Base RateAsk what usually happens to cases like this one before you consider what is special about this one.proven
- The Planning FallacyYour estimate of how long this will take is an estimate of the best case, and you know it is not the best case.proven
- Satisfice on Everything but the FewPeople who seek the best option end up with objectively better outcomes and feel worse about them.solid
- Three Good ThingsWriting down three things that went well, and why, each night for a week raises wellbeing measurably for months.solid